Broxbourne Borough - Local election summary

So I have completed my local election ward by ward analysis, and tomorrow I shall stick my neck well and truly on the block with my predictions. These won’t be published until around 10pm. I know no-one will take any notice of my musings but I still think it is safest and in any case I am probably travelling most of tomorrow anyway. But to summarise the situation as I see it, the Conservatives go into these elections with a 36-2 seat advantage over Labour in the Council and are defending all 12 seats up for election this time. I think that it is going to be a tall order to defend all 12 successfully and suspect that Waltham Cross may well be a Labour gain. As can be seen from the above, even if the Conservatives lost all 12 seats they would still control the council such is their advantage. I suspect that the new council will in all probability be 35-3 although there is an outside chance of either 35-2-1 or 34-4 being the new council or even 34-3-1.  The 1 in each case being if the BNP took Waltham Cross, which I think is actually pretty unlikely.

Polls open in a few hours so all the parties will have done everything that they can by now, it is up to the voters to decide. In a little over 24 hours we shall start to know for certain.

Broxbourne Borough: Ward by Ward - Rye Park Ward

Finally we come to the last ward with elections in this cycle for Broxbourne Borough, Rye Park ward. The results from 2004 are as follows:-

Conservative   1016      Labour             713           

For comparison the result at last years round of elections was as follows:-

Conservative   873      Labour             439           Lib Dem   105     BNP      186

This ward is probably considered by most people to be part of Hoddesdon; however in many respects it exhibits its own characteristics. The demographics would convince you that this was a Labour ward at first glance; however a closer look would show you a highly mixed ward with pockets of good support for each. This is in reality a marginal ward and if Labour were doing better nationally then it would probably be Labour held. It is a credit to the local Conservatives that they have made hay while the sun has shone. The Lib Dems fielded a candidate last year and showed that they were largely irrelevant coming 4^th in a field of 4 with just 7% of the vote. The BNP achieved 12% from a standing start in 2007 and Labour plumbed a new support low. In 2003 Labour polled 47% and in 2007 just 27%.

The Conservative candidate is the sitting Councillor, Bren Perryman. The Labour candidate is again Annette Marples, who should be given points for persistence in the face of an increasingly bigger margin against her. The BNP are fielding a candidate again this year in Ramon Johns, who sat as the lone BNP Councillor for Rosedale between 2003 and 2007.

The Conservatives should be a little concerned in this ward this year. As the ruling group on the Council they piloted a new refuse collection scheme in this ward and Goff’s Oak ward. If the local people take against this then the Conservatives could suffer. However where that vote goes is difficult to surmise. One suspects that Labour is too unpopular nationally to profit too much although they may get a lift from their 27% last year. The BNP may be the receptacle of the protest vote here, but one suspects that they are too far behind to really have too much hope here. I would suspect that this will probably therefore be a Conservative hold, with an outside chance of a Labour gain. It really depends how badly the bin change has gone down.

Broxbourne Borough: Ward by Ward - Hoddesdon North Ward

Moving north we come to Hoddesdon North ward, which is the northernmost ward in the Borough. The results from 2004 are as follows:-

Conservative   1478      Labour             354           

For comparison the result at last years round of elections was as follows:-

Conservative   1193      Labour             256           BNP   213

This ward is the northern extreme of Hoddesdon and is centred around the bulk of the Hundred Acre estate. Demographically speaking this should be a closer ward than it is. The estates are not particularly upmarket and it is tribute to the Conservatives locally that they have such a lock on this ward. The Labour vote has been remorselessly squeezed in Hoddesdon North and is now down to about 15%. I doubt it can go much lower. The BNP stood last year and scored only 12% which is unsurprising as there are a few things to play on but not a lot and the Conservatives are ridiculously strong in the ward.

The Conservative candidate is the veteran sitting Councillor, Lyn White. The Labour candidate is Ed Hopwood, who has stood for Labour previously. The BNP are fielding a candidate again this year in Colin Whittaker, I know nothing about this candidate.

The Conservatives will have little to be worried about in this ward; they managed a touch under 70% in a three way contest last year. The national trend will make life very difficult for Labour and one wouldn’t expect them to exceed their share last year, having said that it is difficult to see it dropping much further. The BNP may improve on their 12% and may nudge in front of Labour but it is difficult to see them gaining more than 15%. This looks like a quite comfortable hold for the Conservatives.

Broxbourne Borough: Ward by Ward - Hoddesdon Town Ward

Moving north we come to Hoddesdon Town ward, which is the ward I live in. The results from 2004 are as follows:-

Conservative   968      Labour             267            Lib Dem   356

For comparison the result at last years round of elections was as follows:-

Conservative   930      Labour             224            Lib Dem   259

The ward is quite a mixed bag in some respects, the extreme south of the ward is quite affluent and is probably where the bulk of the Conservative support comes from, moving north through the ward one encounters areas that are more likely to have a larger showing for Labour. The significant showing for the Lib Dems is unsurprising as in many ways most of the borough would probably be quite a good area but the party locally is pretty moribund. This year the BNP are also standing and in parts of the ward they could probably have somewhat of an impact.

The Conservative candidate is the sitting Councillor, Bob Bick. The Labour candidate is Neil Harvey, who used to be a Councillor for Labour in Rye Park. The Liberal Democrats are putting up Kirstie De Rivaz as their perennial candidate in this ward. The BNP are fielding a candidate for the first time this year in Garry Crowhurst, I know nothing about this candidate.

The Conservatives will have little to be worried about in this ward; this is currently a quite Conservative ward. The number of candidates might mean that the ward is won by less than 50%, I would expect though that the Conservatives would be the largest vote in this ward though. Labour are weak in Hoddesdon Town and have been weakening in recent years, I cannot see that altering as national trends will bear down. The BNP will have pockets of support but will not be able to gain sufficient support to overtake the Conservatives. This looks like a Conservative hold to me.

Broxbourne Borough: Ward by Ward - Broxbourne Ward

The next ward on my list is Broxbourne ward, which to my mind is probably the largest ward by area. The results from 2004 are as follows:-

Conservative   1338      Labour             225            Lib Dem   384

For comparison the result at last years round of elections was as follows:-

Conservative   1355      Labour             164            Lib Dem   223

The ward is one of the most affluent in the Borough with lots of larger houses and more wealthy estates. The Baas Hill/Park Lane area has some of the grandest houses in the Borough. There are the odd pockets of more modest accommodation around the ward but these are few and far between. The Conservatives are unsurprisingly extremely strong in this ward. What is more surprising is that the Liberal Democrats who put up a candidate regularly in this ward do not perform better and that probably reflects on the state of that party locally. Labour regularly come third in this ward and in the last 2 years have polled less than 10%.

The Conservative candidate is the sitting Councillor, Paul Mason, who has been on the Council a number of years and yet is one of the more youthful Councillors. The Labour candidate is Raymond Cook, of whom again I know nothing. The Liberal Democrats are putting up Michael Winrow as their candidate. The BNP are fielding a candidate for the first time this year in Joanne Warren, again I know nothing about this candidate.

The Conservatives will have few concerns in this ward; this is currently an extremely Conservative ward. The number of candidates will probably mitigate against the near 80% of the vote they have achieved in recent contests. The Lib Dems are pretty weak here too, in the last 5 years never getting above 20% of the votes,  Labour are have never scored above 15% and as noted above have now dropped below 10%. Looking at the nature of the ward the BNP will struggle to make much as the ward presents few grievances for them to exploit. All in all this looks like nothing other than a solid Conservative hold.

Broxbourne Borough: Ward by Ward - Wormley Turnford Ward

The next ward on my list is Wormley Turnford, which contains the two villages of Wormley and Turnford. The results from 2004 are as follows:-

Conservative   1248      Labour             475           

For comparison the result at last years round of elections was as follows:-

Conservative   1068       Labour             245        BNP     305   

The ward is one that has many differences, some areas of the ward have very large up market houses, other parts are more modest. This is one of those areas that Labour should be doing better in if one looked purely at the demographics. In recent years the Conservatives have been running away with this ward by extremely big margins, comfortably gaining at least two thirds of the vote. The entry of the BNP last year did little to dent the Conservatives commanding advantage. Indeed their vote share seemed to come as much from Labour.

The Conservative candidate is new this year, James Metcalf, I know nothing about this candidate. The Labour candidate is Christopher Francis, of whom again I know nothing. The BNP are fielding a candidate again this year in Ian Hunter, yet again I know nothing about this candidate.

The Conservatives will have few concerns in this ward; this is currently a heavily Conservative ward. Labour are pretty weak in this ward and the BNP are unlikely to be able to overhaul the Conservatives two-thirds of the vote. This should be a comfortable Conservative hold.

A good weekend to be a Conservative

Fresh from the YouGov poll lead of 18% for the Conservatives, this weekend brings fresh good news for the party. An ICM poll gives a lead of 10% and a News of the World poll in the marginals suggests that Labour are losing out heavily in the marginals. The poll suggests that the Conservatives would make net gains of over 100 seats, enough to give a majority of 64. This is devastating news for Labour as it shows that they are being comprehensively outperformed where it matters most.

The Conservatives cannot sit back on their laurels though and will need to work daily until the next election to ensure that what is only a theoretical result becomes an actual result. The more polls like the last couple and we can be fairly sure that that election won’t be occurring until it has to! 

Broxbourne Borough: Ward by Ward - Cheshunt Central Ward

The next ward on my list is Cheshunt North, which as its name suggests is the Northern end of Cheshunt and to the east of the A10. The results in 2004 are as follows:-

Conservative   977      Labour             429           

For comparison the result at last years round of elections was as follows:-

Conservative   913       Labour             302        BNP     262    National Front    91           

The ward is one that is distinctly different to the other Cheshunt wards. It has some pleasant estates but also some less pleasant estates. There are parts of this ward that should  in theory be quite Labour leaning, indeed in recent history the ward has been held by Labour as one of the councillors defected from the Labour group to the Conservative from this ward.

The Conservative candidate is new this year, Richard Clemerson, who has been active in the Conservative campaigning in Rosedale in recent years. The Labourcandidate is Peter Alford, of whom I know little. The BNP are fielding a candidate again this year in Carolyn Iles, if memory serves and the person is the same, Carolyn Iles has stood previously for Labour.

The Conservatives will moderate concerns in this ward; recent history has shown this to be a comfortably Conservative ward. I have already mentioned though that this ward has returned Labour in the past, and if one looks at the 2003 results the BNP were only 170 votes behind the Conservatives. This year the BNP vote will not be split by the presence of a National Front candidate. The Conservative vote is strong, and Labour in this ward is now particularly weak and one suspects that the Conservatives should hold this ward comfortably.

Someones site isn’t secure….

Harriet Harman, the Labour deputy leader has had her blog hacked and some changes made. I’m not sure if Harriet will see the funny side though.

 

 hattip: Guido

Latest Opinion Poll - Conservatives 18% ahead

So tonight sees a new opinion poll published by YouGov with the Conservatives on 44%, Labour on 26% and the Lib Dems on 17%. This is a staggering poll. If replicated in a General election it would probably produce a seriously workable majority for the Conservatives. It is also interesting to note that the Conservative lead is now larger than the Lib Dem share of the poll, the Conservative share is larger than the combination of the other two parties shares and the difference between the Conservatives and Labour is double that between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Now clearly this could be a rogue poll and bear no relation to how party support is in the country. We will need to see other polls to start to get an idea of whether the Conservatives are developing an election winning position. Also next weeks local elections may give us an idea of the state of play.

For Labour this is a catastrophic rating to be at, they are plumbing polling depths that they haven’t seen since the dog days of Michael Foot. If this poll figure is accurate Labour has some big questions to ask itself about how it is in this position, and how to dig itself out. If it fails to come up with the correct answer then it looks increasingly likely that they will be bundled out of office when the next election comes. This sort of polling begins to bring into sharp relief the rebellion in Labour ranks over the 10p tax band abolition. Some thoughts will turn to the leadership and whether to ditch Brown. Whilst I can see the arguments around it, and the superficial attraction I suspect that a governing party that replaced a leader they had chosen by acclamation only a short while before would not be treated kindly. Labour might be looking at a bad result next time, ditch Brown and it could be even worse.

The Lib Dems have staged a modest recovery from the dire position they were in under Ming. It wasn’t Mings fault, it wasn’t even his age, it was his massive dislocation from the zeitgeist. This was a leader who looked like he had walked out of the 1950’s, it was never ever going to work for the Lib Dems under Ming. The problem is that Nick Clegg has only really had one success which is to nudge the Lib Dems polling up a little, unkind souls would probably point out that a lot of that upshift occurred whilst the contest was going on. Nick Clegg probably still doesn’t resonate with the public who would be hard pressed to pull him out of a line up. The other problem is that when Clegg hasn’t been invisible he has bought negative publicity, his EU Treatystution walkout made the Lib Dems look childish, there three line whip to abstain over a referendum that was in their manifesto made them look anti-democratic and out of step with the time. Nick Cleggs laddish boast in a glossy magazine made him look frankly a bit of a prat, so in many ways the Lib Dem poll rating is despite not because of their leader. What does it presage, I think it is pretty clear that the Lib Dems are being squeezed by the Cameron Conservative Party and they need to offset losses in former Conservative seats. The Lib Dems need to make themselves a second alternative to Labour to hoover up the votes that don’t want Labour and don’t want the Conservatives either. The problem is that Nick Clegg is tending to try and face all ways, he should remember the old cliche about not fighting a war on two fronts.

All in all a very very good poll for the Conservatives, a dire poll for Labour and a middling sort of poll for the Liberal Democrats.