Political Betting has succumbed

Clearly Politicalbetting.com has found itself too popular today to cope and is currently dead. Hopefully it will be patched up and get back on its feet again soon.

Update - It’s back!

Sticking my neck out part 2 - The Broxbourne Prediction

So here is my prediction for tonight in the wards of the Borough of Broxbourne, They are presented as ranges of 50 votes so for example 150-200. This is based on a similar turnout to last year. Obviously if turnout is markedly different my ranges will be meaningless. You will see that I am predicting the Conservatives to win 11 of the 12 wards, and Labour to win 1. As the Conservatives are defending all 12 seats this will represent a loss of 1 seat and result in a council of 35 Conservatives with a 3 strong opposition Labour group.  As soon as I have the results I will post them to compare my prediction against reality.

 

 

BROXBOURNE	Labour	100-150
	Conservative	1150-1200
	BNP	200-250
	Liberal Democrats	150-200
BURY GREEN	Conservative	850-900
	BNP	650-70
	Labour	200-250
CHESHUNT CENTRAL	Conservative	1050-1100
	BNP	300-350
	Labour	200-250
CHESHUNT NORTH	Labour	200-250
	Conservative	850-900
	BNP	400-450
FLAMSTEAD END	BNP	300-350
	Conservative	900-950
	Labour	150-200
GOFF’S OAK	Conservative	1400-1450
	Labour	150-200
	BNP	150-200
HODDESDON NORTH	Labour	200-250
	Conservative	1100-1150
	BNP	250-300
HODDESDON TOWN	Conservative	650-700
	BNP	250-300
	Liberal Democrats	250-300
	Labour	150-200
RYE PARK	BNP	250-300
	Labour	550-600
	Conservative	700-750
THEOBALDS	BNP	250-300
	Labour	250-300
	Conservative	1000-1050
WALTHAM CROSS	Conservative	450-500
	BNP	300-350
	Labour	600-650
WORMLEY AND TURNFORD	BNP	350-400
	Labour	150-200
	Conservative	1000-1050

 

Rather concerned with my popular search terms

Most of my blog articles recently have been reached by searches for BNP or their local candidate names. I am somewhat concerned by this.

Election day anecdotes

Heard from various friends from round the country, none of my London friends yet, the overriding theme seems to be a desire to give the government a kick. Could just be election day exuberance, I know that in years gone by, by the time you get to election day you are pretty knackered and willing to see the slightest smile as a good sign. My mates are all seasoned campaigners though so if they say ‘there is something in the air’ I tend to believe them. We shall know soon enough. I think we could be in for a very exciting night.

Sticking my neck out part 1

I am going to stick my neck out and make a prediction. The London Mayoral election is not going to be that close. I think Boris will be something of the order of 15% ahead in the first round, my guess is that the votes will stack up 44-28 in the first round and after second preferences are taken into consideration I think the final tally will be something of the order of 56-44.

Of course I will probably be hopelessly wrong on this.

Just back from voting.

Well I was number 2 at voting in my polling district at 7:10 this morning. I’m now waiting to see if I’m going away later…