2008 Locals - What happens now

As I write, we still await the London Mayoral results, but on the back of the locals it would seem that Boris will do well. These are dire results for Labour, there worst performance in a generation it would seem. The lowest share of the vote and eclipsed by the Lib Dems in those terms. The projected national share from the BBC is:-

Conservative 44%

Labour           24%

Lib Dem         25%

Others              7%

It is clear that the results in actual elections are mirroring opinion polls. One has to be careful about using figures like this as the Lib Dems do a lot better in local projected shares to General Election actual share. I would suspect that if a general election were held that Labour would be on about 30% and the Lib Dems on about 19% . I suspect that the Conservatives would be roughly where they are. Given that electoral calculus gives the following UNS result of Conservatives 373, Labour 210, Lib Dems 37 a majority for the Conservatives of 96.

With the Mayoral result due later, the results of local elections 2008 show that the next General election will probably be the most exciting in many many years.

My neck is doing well!

I am astonished that I called it largely well, my main mistakes seem to be underestimating Labour slightly in some parts, majorly overestimated the BNP in others and underestimated the Conservatives somewhat. Here are the predictions against the results.

BROXBOURNE	Labour	100-150	176
	Conservative	1150-1200	1307
	BNP	200-250	133
	Liberal Democrats	150-200	224
BURY GREEN	Conservative	850-900	1031
	BNP	650-70	389
	Labour	200-250	308
CHESHUNT CENTRAL	Conservative	1050-1100	1216
	BNP	300-350	298
	Labour	200-250	305
CHESHUNT NORTH	Labour	200-250	316
	Conservative	850-900	1089
	BNP	400-450	281
FLAMSTEAD END	BNP	300-350	283
	Conservative	900-950	1101
	Labour	150-200	290
GOFF’S OAK	Conservative	1400-1450	1594
	Labour	150-200	233
	BNP	150-200	237
HODDESDON NORTH	Labour	200-250	266
	Conservative	1100-1150	1317
	BNP	250-300	221
HODDESDON TOWN	Conservative	650-700	863
	BNP	250-300	176
	Liberal Democrats	250-300	193
	Labour	150-200	214
RYE PARK	BNP	250-300	196
	Labour	550-600	502
	Conservative	700-750	914
THEOBALDS	BNP	250-300	234
	Labour	250-300	409
	Conservative	1000-1050	1201
WALTHAM CROSS	Conservative	450-500	533
	BNP	300-350	460
	Labour	600-650	713
WORMLEY AND TURNFORD	BNP	350-400	306
	Labour	150-200	347
	Conservative	1000-1050	1126