2008 Locals - What happens now
Posted by James Burdett on May 2, 2008
As I write, we still await the London Mayoral results, but on the back of the locals it would seem that Boris will do well. These are dire results for Labour, there worst performance in a generation it would seem. The lowest share of the vote and eclipsed by the Lib Dems in those terms. The projected national share from the BBC is:-
Conservative 44%
Labour 24%
Lib Dem 25%
Others 7%
It is clear that the results in actual elections are mirroring opinion polls. One has to be careful about using figures like this as the Lib Dems do a lot better in local projected shares to General Election actual share. I would suspect that if a general election were held that Labour would be on about 30% and the Lib Dems on about 19% . I suspect that the Conservatives would be roughly where they are. Given that electoral calculus gives the following UNS result of Conservatives 373, Labour 210, Lib Dems 37 a majority for the Conservatives of 96.
With the Mayoral result due later, the results of local elections 2008 show that the next General election will probably be the most exciting in many many years.
