Tipping Point?

The history of the current Parliament when it comes to be written will probably be divided into three sections. It now looks increasingly likely that the Parliament will go pretty much to term and that the next election will be in May 2010. If that is the case then the three sections of the Parliament will be, I believe divided thus. The first part will be May 2005-Jun 2007, and will be the final Blair hurrah with the undercurrent of the ascent of Cameron. The second part will be shorter and from Jun 2007- Jun 2008 and will probably be labelled the tipping period. The final part of the Parliament from Jun 2008- May 2010 will be the part probably labelled the increasingly inevitable.

The first part of this Parliament is absolutely crucial in the story that now seems to be unfolding. The continuing presence of Blair, and the knowledge of his impending departure created the space for the Conservative Party to finally decontaminate and then rebuild. The media narrative was concentrated on when Blair would finally go and it is credit to David Cameron and his team that he recognised the space this gave him and used it. Cameron’s policy during this period was to cling to the Blairite faction in many ways and to neutralize the Lib Dems. The first half of this strategy had two aims, firstly it forced the Brownites to become more anti-Blair and to retreat into the rhetoric of Old Labour, secondly it was to convince the electorate that Cameron represented continuity and reassurance. The second part of the strategy was designed simply to maximise the chances of being able to gain a majority, and if that didn’t happen to pave the way for an agreement with the Lib Dems to acquiesce in a minority Conservative administration. I happen to believe that the Conservatives were not looking at formal coalition, they simply wanted to make sure that a minority Conservative government had enough shelf life to get a few things done before seeking a full mandate.

The results of this twin strategy were solid if not spectacular the polls began to shift towards the Conservatives, the Lib Dems began to drift downwards in polling. The sideline effect was that the Labour party started to balkanise more and more into Blairite and Brownite. The Brown camp in the lead up to the transition clearly was whispering around that he was the traditionalist and that when he got his hands on the levers of power that his government would be more left-wing. It was clear though that Brown would be left with little room for manoeuvre and would end up either disappointing those who thought he was their salvation or the electorate which was showing signs of shifting in a Blairite or right-ward direction. Thus phase one of the Parliament came to a climax.

Phase two was always going to be the point between when Brown succeeded to the Premiership and the point at which the shape of future Politics became obvious. It represented the tipping point of Politics and as with any fulcrum it can tip either way. This tipping point period started in June with a significant bounce in the polls for Labour and a serious wobble on the part of the Conservatives. Indeed at times during those first three months it appeared as if the Conservatives would be faced with an early election and demolished. I think though that the Cameron strategy rested on this one big gamble, that Gordon wouldn’t throw his innate caution to the wind. It was a high stakes game of political Russian roulette, I doubt though that even David Cameron would have foreseen that Gordon Brown would seemingly put the bullet straight through his chances at the next election. This phase of the Cameron strategy was to ride out the Brown bounce and then ruthlessly prey on his own insecurities. Cameron has followed this strategy ever since Gordon arrived and has had the PM visibly quivering with rage, hands shaking. David Cameron has used PMQ’s to eviscerate the Prime Minister’s character in a merciless way. The PM has made several mistakes that have given Cameron the space to achieve this, notably when he visibly blinked in October over the election that never was. It wasn’t so much what it said about the political situation as what it said about the PM, for all the double-digit poll leads Gordon was scared of the Conservatives. Cameron used the period afterwards to compound misery on Gordon Brown and to bare his political teeth. As the undoubted Big Beast shrunk the plucky little fighter was bulking up.

The immediate space after the cancelled election also gave space to the Lib Dems who had found themselves viciously squeezed in the vice of the two-party titans. At one stage plumbing the depths of just 11% in the polls. Ming was eased out and eventually replaced with Nick Clegg, this has resulted in a slight improvement in the Lib Dem polling figures but they are still well off their 2005 tally. Also the new Lib Dem leader hasn’t had an auspicious start, firstly his election was by the thinnest of margins. Then he concocted a row over a key policy which looked unseemly. He then courted ridicule with laddish braggings in a magazine interview. The media appear to regard him with faint disdain and he hasn’t even got to his six month mark yet, and for a party that is third placed they rely on a favourable media for even a slightly fair wind.

The tipping point period seems to be coming to an end now, as the shape of politics in the last section of the Parliament the final run-in to the next election begins to become clearer. The Local elections last week were a shattering rebuff to Labour, commentators were left scouring the record books to draw comparisons. Some even suggested that this was as bad as it has been for Labour since the First World War, I think that is stretching things. The common benchmark is that this is certainly as bad as it has been since 1968. The Conservatives scored 44% of the vote and were 20% in front of Labour, confirming the most dire opinion polls. In London Labour lost the mayoralty and were probably only saved from a bigger humiliation by the personality of the incumbent Mayor seeking re-election. In London terms the Lib Dems were severely squeezed and despite net gains and good headlines the picture in the locals is probably patchy and falsely comforting for the Lib Dems. The Conservatives were the clear winners in the Local elections making progress in all parts, even in the North and in some of Labour’s heartland areas. The Conservatives also now have a two-year period of running London to showcase how a Conservative government would be and despite the hopes of many left-wing columnists, Boris Johnson will not embarass the Conservative cause but will aid it.

The final chapter in this part of the Parliament is being written now in Crewe & Nantwich. The by-election caused by the sad death of Gwynneth Dunwoody will be the most important in years. The Conservatives have a realistic chance of taking the seat, the Lib Dems are miles behind and although they are the past masters at by-elections the Conservatives have learnt lessons from recent contests and are showing serious intent. If the Conservatives win Crewe & Nantwich it will be the clearest possible indication of which way politics has tipped. If they don’t win then whilst I think that the indicators will be slightly less clear the direction will still be the same but less emphatically. The final section of this Parliament looks increasingly as if it will be about the increasing inevitablitiy of a change of government.