Crewecified!
Posted by James Burdett on May 23, 2008
So now we have the results of the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. The Conservatives have gained the seat with a swing of 17.6% from Labour. The turnout was at 58.2% one of the highest by-election turnouts in many years. People wanted to vote in this election and did in huge numbers. This is a considerable victory for democracy, regardless of the result and shows that people do want to vote if there is a reason to do so and a clear choice on offer. I suspect that national General election turnout could climb up towards 70% again if this trend continues.
The result was the first Conservative by-election gain in 26 years and the first from Labour in 30. This is a significant result for David Cameron, and shows that the Conservatives are capable of winning elections of all types. Coming on top of the recent local elections, Mayoral elections and current opinion polls there is now considerable evidence pointing towards a Conservative victory at the next election. For Labour the result is dire, their vote share crashed by 18% from 48% to 30%. This is a disastrous haemorrhaging of support and bodes ill for Labour. The Lib Dem’s fared little better, their vote share wasn’t squeezed to nothing as third placed parties sometimes are but it still went down by 4% which is almost certainly not what they wanted to see. If a seat came up where the Lib Dems were second to Labour they might do better but it is clear that their is now a big tendency of a straight Labour to Conservative switch. That must be worrying for the Lib Dems.
Why did Labour perform so badly? I think there are a number of reasons, not the least of which is their generalised unpopularity. Recent opinion polls have given Labour defecits of anything between 17 and 26 points. I think however their campaign was a complete disaster. If their campaign had been merely inept it would have been one thing, however the campaign was also grossly insensitive in many different ways. Firstly despite agreement from the Dunwoody family the by-election should never have been called so early, it looked inappropriate when proper respects had not been paid to a much loved MP. This was compounded by the decision to adopt the former MP’s daughter as the candidate and try to trade on the respect the previous MP was held in. It looked what it was shabby and sordid. I shall deal with the Toff aspect later but I think that it was a significant feature of this by-election. Clearly the biggest factor was 10p tax which was a monumental government error, compounded by dithering and delay over how to mitigate the worst effects. The problem in the campaign was that Labour blundered by trying to gain credit for correcting their own mistake. The candidate even tried to claim some personal credit for the climbdown. I just don’t think it would have washed, it looked like what it was an expensive vote-buying excercise. We now know the price of every vote cast for Labour in Crewe and Nantwich £212,950.50! Finally there was the idiotic way in which the Labour campaign dogwhistled on certain issues particularly race. There was comment that the BNP didn’t put up a candidate in this by-election, at times it seemed as if the Labour party was performing that role quite adequately on its own.
The final issue which Labour comprehensively mishandled was their class war, Tory toffs, campaign message. This was always likely to be counter-productive but in the wake of 10p tax it was more than likely the suicide option. I will explain why. The toff part of the campaign may have echoed slightly in terms of people with greater advantage having an easier ride, however when your candidate could be accused of inheriting the seat that was likely to be blunted. The problem was that Labour fought a them and us campaign that was more based on wealth than advantage and that was a crucial mistake. Most people, even the poorest, would quite like to be rich, they want to be in a position of advantage. It is why the Lottery, bingo and the Football pools are all so popular. People want to better themselves. It is a human instinct. The problem was that Labour seemed to be saying in the Campaign, we bashed you whilst you were poor but if you become more wealthy we are going to bash you even more. It was an anti-aspiration campaign and no such campaign will ever work. People want to succeed, they just want the same chance of success as everyone else. Coming over as anti-success as Labour did through their campaign was always likely to be very bad idea, and they were mercilessly punished for it.
So what does the future hold after this result? Nobody can be certain however I would point out that in opinion polls the Conservatives have on some accounts a 20% advantage, in the local elections the Conservatives had a 20% advantage, and in Crewe and Nantwich the Conservatives had a near 20% advantage. That has to be more than co-incidence. If the swing in this by-election were repeated the Conservatives would have a majority of 334. I doubt the swing would be repeated but I suspect that the general reading of the runes is clear. The Conservatives will be more competitive in the next General election than at any time since 1992. Labour spokespeople are often heard saying of late that ‘the voters are sending us a message’, for many Labour MP’s in marginal seats the inescapable message for them is ’start looking for another job’.
Posted in By-elections, Conservatives, Labour, Politics | No Comments »
