2008 Locals - What happens now

As I write, we still await the London Mayoral results, but on the back of the locals it would seem that Boris will do well. These are dire results for Labour, there worst performance in a generation it would seem. The lowest share of the vote and eclipsed by the Lib Dems in those terms. The projected national share from the BBC is:-

Conservative 44%

Labour           24%

Lib Dem         25%

Others              7%

It is clear that the results in actual elections are mirroring opinion polls. One has to be careful about using figures like this as the Lib Dems do a lot better in local projected shares to General Election actual share. I would suspect that if a general election were held that Labour would be on about 30% and the Lib Dems on about 19% . I suspect that the Conservatives would be roughly where they are. Given that electoral calculus gives the following UNS result of Conservatives 373, Labour 210, Lib Dems 37 a majority for the Conservatives of 96.

With the Mayoral result due later, the results of local elections 2008 show that the next General election will probably be the most exciting in many many years.

My neck is doing well!

I am astonished that I called it largely well, my main mistakes seem to be underestimating Labour slightly in some parts, majorly overestimated the BNP in others and underestimated the Conservatives somewhat. Here are the predictions against the results.

BROXBOURNE	Labour	100-150	176
	Conservative	1150-1200	1307
	BNP	200-250	133
	Liberal Democrats	150-200	224
BURY GREEN	Conservative	850-900	1031
	BNP	650-70	389
	Labour	200-250	308
CHESHUNT CENTRAL	Conservative	1050-1100	1216
	BNP	300-350	298
	Labour	200-250	305
CHESHUNT NORTH	Labour	200-250	316
	Conservative	850-900	1089
	BNP	400-450	281
FLAMSTEAD END	BNP	300-350	283
	Conservative	900-950	1101
	Labour	150-200	290
GOFF’S OAK	Conservative	1400-1450	1594
	Labour	150-200	233
	BNP	150-200	237
HODDESDON NORTH	Labour	200-250	266
	Conservative	1100-1150	1317
	BNP	250-300	221
HODDESDON TOWN	Conservative	650-700	863
	BNP	250-300	176
	Liberal Democrats	250-300	193
	Labour	150-200	214
RYE PARK	BNP	250-300	196
	Labour	550-600	502
	Conservative	700-750	914
THEOBALDS	BNP	250-300	234
	Labour	250-300	409
	Conservative	1000-1050	1201
WALTHAM CROSS	Conservative	450-500	533
	BNP	300-350	460
	Labour	600-650	713
WORMLEY AND TURNFORD	BNP	350-400	306
	Labour	150-200	347
	Conservative	1000-1050	1126

Election day anecdotes

Heard from various friends from round the country, none of my London friends yet, the overriding theme seems to be a desire to give the government a kick. Could just be election day exuberance, I know that in years gone by, by the time you get to election day you are pretty knackered and willing to see the slightest smile as a good sign. My mates are all seasoned campaigners though so if they say ‘there is something in the air’ I tend to believe them. We shall know soon enough. I think we could be in for a very exciting night.

Just back from voting.

Well I was number 2 at voting in my polling district at 7:10 this morning. I’m now waiting to see if I’m going away later…

Broxbourne Borough - Local election summary

So I have completed my local election ward by ward analysis, and tomorrow I shall stick my neck well and truly on the block with my predictions. These won’t be published until around 10pm. I know no-one will take any notice of my musings but I still think it is safest and in any case I am probably travelling most of tomorrow anyway. But to summarise the situation as I see it, the Conservatives go into these elections with a 36-2 seat advantage over Labour in the Council and are defending all 12 seats up for election this time. I think that it is going to be a tall order to defend all 12 successfully and suspect that Waltham Cross may well be a Labour gain. As can be seen from the above, even if the Conservatives lost all 12 seats they would still control the council such is their advantage. I suspect that the new council will in all probability be 35-3 although there is an outside chance of either 35-2-1 or 34-4 being the new council or even 34-3-1.  The 1 in each case being if the BNP took Waltham Cross, which I think is actually pretty unlikely.

Polls open in a few hours so all the parties will have done everything that they can by now, it is up to the voters to decide. In a little over 24 hours we shall start to know for certain.

Broxbourne Borough: Ward by Ward - Rye Park Ward

Finally we come to the last ward with elections in this cycle for Broxbourne Borough, Rye Park ward. The results from 2004 are as follows:-

Conservative   1016      Labour             713           

For comparison the result at last years round of elections was as follows:-

Conservative   873      Labour             439           Lib Dem   105     BNP      186

This ward is probably considered by most people to be part of Hoddesdon; however in many respects it exhibits its own characteristics. The demographics would convince you that this was a Labour ward at first glance; however a closer look would show you a highly mixed ward with pockets of good support for each. This is in reality a marginal ward and if Labour were doing better nationally then it would probably be Labour held. It is a credit to the local Conservatives that they have made hay while the sun has shone. The Lib Dems fielded a candidate last year and showed that they were largely irrelevant coming 4^th in a field of 4 with just 7% of the vote. The BNP achieved 12% from a standing start in 2007 and Labour plumbed a new support low. In 2003 Labour polled 47% and in 2007 just 27%.

The Conservative candidate is the sitting Councillor, Bren Perryman. The Labour candidate is again Annette Marples, who should be given points for persistence in the face of an increasingly bigger margin against her. The BNP are fielding a candidate again this year in Ramon Johns, who sat as the lone BNP Councillor for Rosedale between 2003 and 2007.

The Conservatives should be a little concerned in this ward this year. As the ruling group on the Council they piloted a new refuse collection scheme in this ward and Goff’s Oak ward. If the local people take against this then the Conservatives could suffer. However where that vote goes is difficult to surmise. One suspects that Labour is too unpopular nationally to profit too much although they may get a lift from their 27% last year. The BNP may be the receptacle of the protest vote here, but one suspects that they are too far behind to really have too much hope here. I would suspect that this will probably therefore be a Conservative hold, with an outside chance of a Labour gain. It really depends how badly the bin change has gone down.

Broxbourne Borough: Ward by Ward - Hoddesdon North Ward

Moving north we come to Hoddesdon North ward, which is the northernmost ward in the Borough. The results from 2004 are as follows:-

Conservative   1478      Labour             354           

For comparison the result at last years round of elections was as follows:-

Conservative   1193      Labour             256           BNP   213

This ward is the northern extreme of Hoddesdon and is centred around the bulk of the Hundred Acre estate. Demographically speaking this should be a closer ward than it is. The estates are not particularly upmarket and it is tribute to the Conservatives locally that they have such a lock on this ward. The Labour vote has been remorselessly squeezed in Hoddesdon North and is now down to about 15%. I doubt it can go much lower. The BNP stood last year and scored only 12% which is unsurprising as there are a few things to play on but not a lot and the Conservatives are ridiculously strong in the ward.

The Conservative candidate is the veteran sitting Councillor, Lyn White. The Labour candidate is Ed Hopwood, who has stood for Labour previously. The BNP are fielding a candidate again this year in Colin Whittaker, I know nothing about this candidate.

The Conservatives will have little to be worried about in this ward; they managed a touch under 70% in a three way contest last year. The national trend will make life very difficult for Labour and one wouldn’t expect them to exceed their share last year, having said that it is difficult to see it dropping much further. The BNP may improve on their 12% and may nudge in front of Labour but it is difficult to see them gaining more than 15%. This looks like a quite comfortable hold for the Conservatives.

Broxbourne Borough: Ward by Ward - Hoddesdon Town Ward

Moving north we come to Hoddesdon Town ward, which is the ward I live in. The results from 2004 are as follows:-

Conservative   968      Labour             267            Lib Dem   356

For comparison the result at last years round of elections was as follows:-

Conservative   930      Labour             224            Lib Dem   259

The ward is quite a mixed bag in some respects, the extreme south of the ward is quite affluent and is probably where the bulk of the Conservative support comes from, moving north through the ward one encounters areas that are more likely to have a larger showing for Labour. The significant showing for the Lib Dems is unsurprising as in many ways most of the borough would probably be quite a good area but the party locally is pretty moribund. This year the BNP are also standing and in parts of the ward they could probably have somewhat of an impact.

The Conservative candidate is the sitting Councillor, Bob Bick. The Labour candidate is Neil Harvey, who used to be a Councillor for Labour in Rye Park. The Liberal Democrats are putting up Kirstie De Rivaz as their perennial candidate in this ward. The BNP are fielding a candidate for the first time this year in Garry Crowhurst, I know nothing about this candidate.

The Conservatives will have little to be worried about in this ward; this is currently a quite Conservative ward. The number of candidates might mean that the ward is won by less than 50%, I would expect though that the Conservatives would be the largest vote in this ward though. Labour are weak in Hoddesdon Town and have been weakening in recent years, I cannot see that altering as national trends will bear down. The BNP will have pockets of support but will not be able to gain sufficient support to overtake the Conservatives. This looks like a Conservative hold to me.

Broxbourne Borough: Ward by Ward - Broxbourne Ward

The next ward on my list is Broxbourne ward, which to my mind is probably the largest ward by area. The results from 2004 are as follows:-

Conservative   1338      Labour             225            Lib Dem   384

For comparison the result at last years round of elections was as follows:-

Conservative   1355      Labour             164            Lib Dem   223

The ward is one of the most affluent in the Borough with lots of larger houses and more wealthy estates. The Baas Hill/Park Lane area has some of the grandest houses in the Borough. There are the odd pockets of more modest accommodation around the ward but these are few and far between. The Conservatives are unsurprisingly extremely strong in this ward. What is more surprising is that the Liberal Democrats who put up a candidate regularly in this ward do not perform better and that probably reflects on the state of that party locally. Labour regularly come third in this ward and in the last 2 years have polled less than 10%.

The Conservative candidate is the sitting Councillor, Paul Mason, who has been on the Council a number of years and yet is one of the more youthful Councillors. The Labour candidate is Raymond Cook, of whom again I know nothing. The Liberal Democrats are putting up Michael Winrow as their candidate. The BNP are fielding a candidate for the first time this year in Joanne Warren, again I know nothing about this candidate.

The Conservatives will have few concerns in this ward; this is currently an extremely Conservative ward. The number of candidates will probably mitigate against the near 80% of the vote they have achieved in recent contests. The Lib Dems are pretty weak here too, in the last 5 years never getting above 20% of the votes,  Labour are have never scored above 15% and as noted above have now dropped below 10%. Looking at the nature of the ward the BNP will struggle to make much as the ward presents few grievances for them to exploit. All in all this looks like nothing other than a solid Conservative hold.

Broxbourne Borough: Ward by Ward - Wormley Turnford Ward

The next ward on my list is Wormley Turnford, which contains the two villages of Wormley and Turnford. The results from 2004 are as follows:-

Conservative   1248      Labour             475           

For comparison the result at last years round of elections was as follows:-

Conservative   1068       Labour             245        BNP     305   

The ward is one that has many differences, some areas of the ward have very large up market houses, other parts are more modest. This is one of those areas that Labour should be doing better in if one looked purely at the demographics. In recent years the Conservatives have been running away with this ward by extremely big margins, comfortably gaining at least two thirds of the vote. The entry of the BNP last year did little to dent the Conservatives commanding advantage. Indeed their vote share seemed to come as much from Labour.

The Conservative candidate is new this year, James Metcalf, I know nothing about this candidate. The Labour candidate is Christopher Francis, of whom again I know nothing. The BNP are fielding a candidate again this year in Ian Hunter, yet again I know nothing about this candidate.

The Conservatives will have few concerns in this ward; this is currently a heavily Conservative ward. Labour are pretty weak in this ward and the BNP are unlikely to be able to overhaul the Conservatives two-thirds of the vote. This should be a comfortable Conservative hold.