Crewecified!

So now we have the results of the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. The Conservatives have gained the seat with a swing of 17.6% from Labour. The turnout was at 58.2% one of the highest by-election turnouts in many years. People wanted to vote in this election and did in huge numbers. This is a considerable victory for democracy, regardless of the result and shows that people do want to vote if there is a reason to do so and a clear choice on offer. I suspect that national General election turnout could climb up towards 70% again if this trend continues.

The result was the first Conservative by-election gain in 26 years and the first from Labour in 30. This is a significant result for David Cameron, and shows that the Conservatives are capable of winning elections of all types. Coming on top of the recent local elections, Mayoral elections and current opinion polls there is now considerable evidence pointing towards a Conservative victory at the next election. For Labour the result is dire, their vote share crashed by 18% from 48% to 30%. This is a disastrous haemorrhaging of support and bodes ill for Labour. The Lib Dem’s fared little better, their vote share wasn’t squeezed to nothing as third placed parties sometimes are but it still went down by 4% which is almost certainly not what they wanted to see. If a seat came up where the Lib Dems were second to Labour they might do better but it is clear that their is now a big tendency of a straight Labour to Conservative switch. That must be worrying for the Lib Dems.

Why did Labour perform so badly? I think there are a number of reasons, not the least of which is their generalised unpopularity. Recent opinion polls have given Labour defecits of anything between 17 and 26 points. I think however their campaign was a complete disaster. If their campaign had been merely inept it would have been one thing, however the campaign was also grossly insensitive in many different ways. Firstly despite agreement from the Dunwoody family the by-election should never have been called so early, it looked inappropriate when proper respects had not been paid to a much loved MP. This was compounded by the decision to adopt the former MP’s daughter as the candidate and try to trade on the respect the previous MP was held in. It looked what it was shabby and sordid. I shall deal with the Toff aspect later but I think that it was a significant feature of this by-election. Clearly the biggest factor was 10p tax which was a monumental government error, compounded by dithering and delay over how to mitigate the worst effects. The problem in the campaign was that Labour blundered by trying to gain credit for correcting their own mistake. The candidate even tried to claim some personal credit for the climbdown. I just don’t think it would have washed, it looked like what it was an expensive vote-buying excercise. We now know the price of every vote cast for Labour in Crewe and Nantwich £212,950.50! Finally there was the idiotic way in which the Labour campaign dogwhistled on certain issues particularly race. There was comment that the BNP didn’t put up a candidate in this by-election, at times it seemed as if the Labour party was performing that role quite adequately on its own.

The final issue which Labour comprehensively mishandled was their class war, Tory toffs, campaign message. This was always likely to be counter-productive but in the wake of 10p tax it was more than likely the suicide option. I will explain why. The toff part of the campaign may have echoed slightly in terms of people with greater advantage having an easier ride, however when your candidate could be accused of inheriting the seat that was likely to be blunted. The problem was that Labour fought a them and us campaign that was more based on wealth than advantage and that was a crucial mistake. Most people, even the poorest, would quite like to be rich, they want to be in a position of advantage. It is why the Lottery, bingo and the Football pools are all so popular. People want to better themselves. It is a human instinct. The problem was that Labour seemed to be saying in the Campaign, we bashed you whilst you were poor but if you become more wealthy we are going to bash you even more. It was an anti-aspiration campaign and no such campaign will ever work. People want to succeed, they just want the same chance of success as everyone else. Coming over as anti-success as Labour did through their campaign was always likely to be very bad idea, and they were mercilessly punished for it.

So what does the future hold after this result? Nobody can be certain however I would point out that in opinion polls the Conservatives have on some accounts a 20% advantage, in the local elections the Conservatives had a 20% advantage, and in Crewe and Nantwich the Conservatives had a near 20% advantage. That has to be more than co-incidence. If the swing in this by-election were repeated the Conservatives would have a majority of 334. I doubt the swing would be repeated but I suspect that the general reading of the runes is clear. The Conservatives will be more competitive in the next General election than at any time since 1992. Labour spokespeople are often heard saying of late that ‘the voters are sending us a message’, for many Labour MP’s in marginal seats the inescapable message for them is ’start looking for another job’.

10p tax the Climbdown

So Alistair Darling has finally been forced into a humiliating backpedal over 10p tax. He has been forced into a wide-ranging compensation package that has literally blown a hole in the governments finances. In order to pay for this U-turn they are adding another £3bn pounds to borrowing for the current financial year. They are raising the personal allowance by £600 pounds for this year, although it is unclear what the base for indexation will be for next year so they could claw it all back in 2009/10 tax year. Simultaneously they have reduced the threshold for 40% tax by £600 pounds. So effectively the only people who will benefit are standard rate taxpayers. A few people will now be taken out of tax altogether but now an unknown extra group of people will find themselves in the higher rate of tax bracket. I doubt that they will be happy about this.

The whole farrago is instructive. Let us be clear raising the tax threshold is right in principle. However this is not a principled move by the government. The government have partly done the right thing but only under severe duress, for political reasons. If they could have got away without compensation they would have done. The biggest bugbear I have is how they have financed this, they have financed this by simply adding to the PSBR. We should be clear that government borrowing is simply deferred taxation or deferred spending cuts. At some point the money borrowed has to be paid back, so either spending gets reined in or taxes go up. There is no pain free way of repaying this money and £3bn is roughly an extra penny on basic rate income tax.

The problem the government will now find is that once the mood has turned even when the government gets things right Labour will not get the credit. The public will bank the good deed and carry on intending to vote the government out. This is because the public will be highly cynical of the motives, they will see all good deeds as electoral calculation and all bad deeds as malign. The government is now past the point where it can seek credit for its moves. I still expect the government to take a hammering in Crewe & Nantwich, and I expect that within a few days new disasters will overtake Labour. As John Major and a queue of Conservatives will testify, once the wind changes direction there is literally nothing you can do but brace yourself for the worst. Labour needs to start bracing.

I’m an angry angry voter

The government is making me angry, correction, the Labour party is making me angry. They are clearly struggling at the moment, that is fine all parties hit difficulties it is how they handle those difficulties that is the measure of them. Wendy Alexander has had a torrid time since becoming Labour Leader in Scotland, however the breathtaking way in which she has tried to leverage her national party leaders difficulties to boost herself is astonishing. It would be bad enough if the potential collateral damage wasn’t the tearing up of the constitutional settlement that has sustained our nation for 300 years. To be reckless as to the break up of the UK would be unpardonable to deliberately risk it for short term personal political gain is a complete disgrace. Wendy Alexander shoud be ashamed of herself, she should resign at her earliest convenience.

If Ms Alexander fails to do the decent thing then Gordon Brown should dump on her from the greatest possible height. Gordon Brown has often talked about ‘Britishness’ as an antidote to the separatist agenda, he should put his political authority where his mouth is. He should launch a vigorous defence of the Union and hang Wendy well and truly out to dry. He of course won’t do anything of the sort, he will calculate that it will harm his chances at the next election. Yet again personal political advancement coming first. It is an utterly abysmal attitude to take. I have some advice for Gordon, you have no chance of winning the next election. Nothing you do will change that. Have a bit of courage and do the right thing here. Or do you just write books about courage?

Some people are commenting that Labour are treating the constitution as a personal plaything for Labour’s advantage. It is far worse, different factions within Labour are risking our nation for ascendancy in the opening shots of a fratricidal civil war. I apologise for the next sentence as it will contain expletives, I rarely swear in print but I am outraged. Labour are a complete and utter fucking disgrace and should be kicked out on their collective arses at the next election!

Is Brown the new Major?

There are plenty of people looking at the current state of the government and the current political situation and drawing comparisons with the dog days of the last Conservative government. In these comparisons Brown is analogous to Major. I can see why the comparison is drawn but I think it is a false analogy. The situation Labour finds itself in is in many ways unique, and uniquely different to the Major government. Also I think that in a lot of ways the government’s predicament is being overplayed by the media.

John Major ascended to the premiership in 1990 having worked his way up in government from the whips office through junior ministerial rank up through Chief Secretary, Foreign Secretary and Chancellor. His ascent through the party did not however come with certain knowledge of his style, views or approach. This was an asset in the heady atmosphere of November 1990 and the leadership election but as things turned sour in the mid-1990s it became a massive hindrance. Conservatives felt that they had been sold a Thatcherite and received a Heathite. This was massively unfair and the circumstances of the 1992-97 Parliament would have forced leaders to be conciliatory and highly centrist in any case. John Major just happened to be most comfortable in that centrist conciliatory position. John Major was consequently derided as a weak PM buffeted by events, but in many ways this is unfair as the Parliamentary mathematics were not conducive to the kind of actions that would have been perceived as ’strong’. The Parliamentary situation post 1992 would have been a nightmare for any government a bare majority at the start of the Parliament was rapidly eaten away by death and defection. By the close of the Parliament the government was acting effectively as a minority administration.

Gordon Brown came into the premiership in entirely different circumstances, having been the second most powerful person in the government for a decade. Gordon Brown was extremely well known, all his strengths and weaknesses were on display. The leadership passed from Blair to Brown like an inheritance without a contest. So far so dissimilar to the Major experience. The Parliamentary situation is different, the government has a healthy majority which is unlikely to be much impacted by death or defection. Brown can therefore afford to take courses of action denied to Major who had no majority to speak of. However Brown is making mistakes that are souring the position that he is in, this is a factor of his character. Tony Blair likened him to a ‘clunking fist’, this was intended to compliment Brown’s heavyweight credentials. However it brings to mind a lumbering, lolloping creature unable to bend with the prevailing wind. This inflexibility and stubbornness was well known prior to his assumption of leadership. It is proving to be a huge problem for Labour now. Brown is a supertanker politician, he turns only slowly. Blair by contrast was a smaller faster more manoeuvrable vessel. Brown is also proving to be a very slow decision maker. This should have been no surprise, during his Chancellorship most of the difficult decisions were put off by reviews. Gershon, Barker, Adair Turner all conducted reviews by Brown. Brown is now reviewing like crazy as PM, this is no surprise as there are more difficult decisions to be taken. Labour are now in the position where they were sold a decisive leader and have received an indecisive one.

The problem is deciding whether Labour’s issues are worse than the problems for the Conservative government under Major. A lot of the Conservative problems were to do with circumstance and a lot of the Labour problems are to do with the guy at the helm. That is not to say that changing the helmsman as some suggest would make things better, the public would probably look unkindly on a party that elected unopposed a leader one year and deposed him the next. The Labour party are staring a bad defeat in the face under Brown however they have nowhere to go, changing leader would in all likelihood not make much of a difference and the brooding presence of Brown would be left on the backbenches. Labour needs to find a means of compensating for Brown’s weaknesses until the next election. It may claw back some votes and minimise the scale of the defeat. The comparison with Major is overdone, John Major was basically a decent politician in dire circumstances, Brown looks increasingly like a dire politician in basically decent circumstances. The consequences for Labour could be worse than the consequences were for the Conservatives.

Tipping Point?

The history of the current Parliament when it comes to be written will probably be divided into three sections. It now looks increasingly likely that the Parliament will go pretty much to term and that the next election will be in May 2010. If that is the case then the three sections of the Parliament will be, I believe divided thus. The first part will be May 2005-Jun 2007, and will be the final Blair hurrah with the undercurrent of the ascent of Cameron. The second part will be shorter and from Jun 2007- Jun 2008 and will probably be labelled the tipping period. The final part of the Parliament from Jun 2008- May 2010 will be the part probably labelled the increasingly inevitable.

The first part of this Parliament is absolutely crucial in the story that now seems to be unfolding. The continuing presence of Blair, and the knowledge of his impending departure created the space for the Conservative Party to finally decontaminate and then rebuild. The media narrative was concentrated on when Blair would finally go and it is credit to David Cameron and his team that he recognised the space this gave him and used it. Cameron’s policy during this period was to cling to the Blairite faction in many ways and to neutralize the Lib Dems. The first half of this strategy had two aims, firstly it forced the Brownites to become more anti-Blair and to retreat into the rhetoric of Old Labour, secondly it was to convince the electorate that Cameron represented continuity and reassurance. The second part of the strategy was designed simply to maximise the chances of being able to gain a majority, and if that didn’t happen to pave the way for an agreement with the Lib Dems to acquiesce in a minority Conservative administration. I happen to believe that the Conservatives were not looking at formal coalition, they simply wanted to make sure that a minority Conservative government had enough shelf life to get a few things done before seeking a full mandate.

The results of this twin strategy were solid if not spectacular the polls began to shift towards the Conservatives, the Lib Dems began to drift downwards in polling. The sideline effect was that the Labour party started to balkanise more and more into Blairite and Brownite. The Brown camp in the lead up to the transition clearly was whispering around that he was the traditionalist and that when he got his hands on the levers of power that his government would be more left-wing. It was clear though that Brown would be left with little room for manoeuvre and would end up either disappointing those who thought he was their salvation or the electorate which was showing signs of shifting in a Blairite or right-ward direction. Thus phase one of the Parliament came to a climax.

Phase two was always going to be the point between when Brown succeeded to the Premiership and the point at which the shape of future Politics became obvious. It represented the tipping point of Politics and as with any fulcrum it can tip either way. This tipping point period started in June with a significant bounce in the polls for Labour and a serious wobble on the part of the Conservatives. Indeed at times during those first three months it appeared as if the Conservatives would be faced with an early election and demolished. I think though that the Cameron strategy rested on this one big gamble, that Gordon wouldn’t throw his innate caution to the wind. It was a high stakes game of political Russian roulette, I doubt though that even David Cameron would have foreseen that Gordon Brown would seemingly put the bullet straight through his chances at the next election. This phase of the Cameron strategy was to ride out the Brown bounce and then ruthlessly prey on his own insecurities. Cameron has followed this strategy ever since Gordon arrived and has had the PM visibly quivering with rage, hands shaking. David Cameron has used PMQ’s to eviscerate the Prime Minister’s character in a merciless way. The PM has made several mistakes that have given Cameron the space to achieve this, notably when he visibly blinked in October over the election that never was. It wasn’t so much what it said about the political situation as what it said about the PM, for all the double-digit poll leads Gordon was scared of the Conservatives. Cameron used the period afterwards to compound misery on Gordon Brown and to bare his political teeth. As the undoubted Big Beast shrunk the plucky little fighter was bulking up.

The immediate space after the cancelled election also gave space to the Lib Dems who had found themselves viciously squeezed in the vice of the two-party titans. At one stage plumbing the depths of just 11% in the polls. Ming was eased out and eventually replaced with Nick Clegg, this has resulted in a slight improvement in the Lib Dem polling figures but they are still well off their 2005 tally. Also the new Lib Dem leader hasn’t had an auspicious start, firstly his election was by the thinnest of margins. Then he concocted a row over a key policy which looked unseemly. He then courted ridicule with laddish braggings in a magazine interview. The media appear to regard him with faint disdain and he hasn’t even got to his six month mark yet, and for a party that is third placed they rely on a favourable media for even a slightly fair wind.

The tipping point period seems to be coming to an end now, as the shape of politics in the last section of the Parliament the final run-in to the next election begins to become clearer. The Local elections last week were a shattering rebuff to Labour, commentators were left scouring the record books to draw comparisons. Some even suggested that this was as bad as it has been for Labour since the First World War, I think that is stretching things. The common benchmark is that this is certainly as bad as it has been since 1968. The Conservatives scored 44% of the vote and were 20% in front of Labour, confirming the most dire opinion polls. In London Labour lost the mayoralty and were probably only saved from a bigger humiliation by the personality of the incumbent Mayor seeking re-election. In London terms the Lib Dems were severely squeezed and despite net gains and good headlines the picture in the locals is probably patchy and falsely comforting for the Lib Dems. The Conservatives were the clear winners in the Local elections making progress in all parts, even in the North and in some of Labour’s heartland areas. The Conservatives also now have a two-year period of running London to showcase how a Conservative government would be and despite the hopes of many left-wing columnists, Boris Johnson will not embarass the Conservative cause but will aid it.

The final chapter in this part of the Parliament is being written now in Crewe & Nantwich. The by-election caused by the sad death of Gwynneth Dunwoody will be the most important in years. The Conservatives have a realistic chance of taking the seat, the Lib Dems are miles behind and although they are the past masters at by-elections the Conservatives have learnt lessons from recent contests and are showing serious intent. If the Conservatives win Crewe & Nantwich it will be the clearest possible indication of which way politics has tipped. If they don’t win then whilst I think that the indicators will be slightly less clear the direction will still be the same but less emphatically. The final section of this Parliament looks increasingly as if it will be about the increasing inevitablitiy of a change of government.

 

A good weekend to be a Conservative

Fresh from the YouGov poll lead of 18% for the Conservatives, this weekend brings fresh good news for the party. An ICM poll gives a lead of 10% and a News of the World poll in the marginals suggests that Labour are losing out heavily in the marginals. The poll suggests that the Conservatives would make net gains of over 100 seats, enough to give a majority of 64. This is devastating news for Labour as it shows that they are being comprehensively outperformed where it matters most.

The Conservatives cannot sit back on their laurels though and will need to work daily until the next election to ensure that what is only a theoretical result becomes an actual result. The more polls like the last couple and we can be fairly sure that that election won’t be occurring until it has to! 

Latest Opinion Poll - Conservatives 18% ahead

So tonight sees a new opinion poll published by YouGov with the Conservatives on 44%, Labour on 26% and the Lib Dems on 17%. This is a staggering poll. If replicated in a General election it would probably produce a seriously workable majority for the Conservatives. It is also interesting to note that the Conservative lead is now larger than the Lib Dem share of the poll, the Conservative share is larger than the combination of the other two parties shares and the difference between the Conservatives and Labour is double that between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Now clearly this could be a rogue poll and bear no relation to how party support is in the country. We will need to see other polls to start to get an idea of whether the Conservatives are developing an election winning position. Also next weeks local elections may give us an idea of the state of play.

For Labour this is a catastrophic rating to be at, they are plumbing polling depths that they haven’t seen since the dog days of Michael Foot. If this poll figure is accurate Labour has some big questions to ask itself about how it is in this position, and how to dig itself out. If it fails to come up with the correct answer then it looks increasingly likely that they will be bundled out of office when the next election comes. This sort of polling begins to bring into sharp relief the rebellion in Labour ranks over the 10p tax band abolition. Some thoughts will turn to the leadership and whether to ditch Brown. Whilst I can see the arguments around it, and the superficial attraction I suspect that a governing party that replaced a leader they had chosen by acclamation only a short while before would not be treated kindly. Labour might be looking at a bad result next time, ditch Brown and it could be even worse.

The Lib Dems have staged a modest recovery from the dire position they were in under Ming. It wasn’t Mings fault, it wasn’t even his age, it was his massive dislocation from the zeitgeist. This was a leader who looked like he had walked out of the 1950’s, it was never ever going to work for the Lib Dems under Ming. The problem is that Nick Clegg has only really had one success which is to nudge the Lib Dems polling up a little, unkind souls would probably point out that a lot of that upshift occurred whilst the contest was going on. Nick Clegg probably still doesn’t resonate with the public who would be hard pressed to pull him out of a line up. The other problem is that when Clegg hasn’t been invisible he has bought negative publicity, his EU Treatystution walkout made the Lib Dems look childish, there three line whip to abstain over a referendum that was in their manifesto made them look anti-democratic and out of step with the time. Nick Cleggs laddish boast in a glossy magazine made him look frankly a bit of a prat, so in many ways the Lib Dem poll rating is despite not because of their leader. What does it presage, I think it is pretty clear that the Lib Dems are being squeezed by the Cameron Conservative Party and they need to offset losses in former Conservative seats. The Lib Dems need to make themselves a second alternative to Labour to hoover up the votes that don’t want Labour and don’t want the Conservatives either. The problem is that Nick Clegg is tending to try and face all ways, he should remember the old cliche about not fighting a war on two fronts.

All in all a very very good poll for the Conservatives, a dire poll for Labour and a middling sort of poll for the Liberal Democrats.

Mayoral Election

Firstly an apology for lack of religious posting, I have had ‘flu so haven’t felt up to posting. It’s a poor excuse I know but I’m sticking to it!!

So yet another YouGov poll yesterday and Boris is now 13 points clear of Ken on First Preference votes. This is good news. It shows that the feeling of time for a change in London is gathering momentum. Ken unsurprisingly is shooting the messenger again and going bananas about this poll. The last three YouGov polls have shown Boris at 12, 10, and 13 points clear, if as Ken contends they are wrong then they are fairly consistently wrong. Polling nowadays is pretty good, and the YouGov methodology is fairly widely accepted as far as I can see and yet Ken is up in arms. In fact he now reminds me of Captain Redbeard Rum in the Blackadder series and his attitude to whether crews were essential, “Opinion is divided on the subject, all the other Captains say they are, I say they aren’t”.

I for my two penneth think the YouGov poll is fairly accurate, it may be slightly over-estimating the size of the Boris lead but I would suspect that Boris is in the lead by a margin and that that is what Ken is upset about. Ken can see his retirement looming with increasing rapidity. The next few weeks are going to be rather interesting!!

Ken Livingstone doesn’t like the YouGov poll

So yesterday a new Opinion Poll was published in the Evening Standard, it showed Boris Johnson down a shade on 47% and Ken Livingstone on 37% unmoved from the last poll. Boris Johnson therefore has a lead over the incumbent of 10%. Within a very short period the Livingstone campaign issued a press release that attempted to trash the YouGov poll. I am not going to deal with the points that the Mayor made as it has been done comprehensively elsewhere. I just wonder if the publishing vehicle is colouring his judgement? I mean he clearly has a thing against the Evening Standard.

Conservatives making lots of headway now

Tonight there is an ICM poll giving the Conservative Party a 13 point lead over Labour. At the weekend there was a poll showing a Conservative lead of 16 points and another poll showing a 9 point lead. Earlier today there was a London mayoral poll giving Boris a 12-point lead over Ken. It is clear that despite certain concerns on the right the Conservatives are beginning to make considerable headway. Labour are now plumbing depths in polling that they last visited under Michael Foot, the Conservatives are pushing up towards the mid-40’s. The Lib Dems have improved slightly since the arrival of Ming but are still being squeezed somewhat. This is a very good position for the Conservatives to occupy at the moment. The danger is though that the election is now more than likely 2 years away and that is a long time to keep a poll lead. I would say though that as of now the likelihood of a change of government at the next election is likely. The Conservatives are now in their strongest position for two decades with the local elections approaching and the realistic chance of seizing the mayoralty of London opening up and the likelihood that there will be further gains in local government the next few weeks and months could get even better for the Conservatives.

 David Cameron must however continue to tread a fine line between caution and boldness, not allowing confidence to turn to arrogance and assumption. Victory is not assured until votes are counted. However the Conservative Party have every reason for optimism going forward, the task is still hard, the election will still be a tough one to win but the polls are now showing that there is potentially enough support out there to win an election. It is now every Conservative’s job to get out and spread the message and ensure that that support solidifies.