Tipping Point?

The history of the current Parliament when it comes to be written will probably be divided into three sections. It now looks increasingly likely that the Parliament will go pretty much to term and that the next election will be in May 2010. If that is the case then the three sections of the Parliament will be, I believe divided thus. The first part will be May 2005-Jun 2007, and will be the final Blair hurrah with the undercurrent of the ascent of Cameron. The second part will be shorter and from Jun 2007- Jun 2008 and will probably be labelled the tipping period. The final part of the Parliament from Jun 2008- May 2010 will be the part probably labelled the increasingly inevitable.

The first part of this Parliament is absolutely crucial in the story that now seems to be unfolding. The continuing presence of Blair, and the knowledge of his impending departure created the space for the Conservative Party to finally decontaminate and then rebuild. The media narrative was concentrated on when Blair would finally go and it is credit to David Cameron and his team that he recognised the space this gave him and used it. Cameron’s policy during this period was to cling to the Blairite faction in many ways and to neutralize the Lib Dems. The first half of this strategy had two aims, firstly it forced the Brownites to become more anti-Blair and to retreat into the rhetoric of Old Labour, secondly it was to convince the electorate that Cameron represented continuity and reassurance. The second part of the strategy was designed simply to maximise the chances of being able to gain a majority, and if that didn’t happen to pave the way for an agreement with the Lib Dems to acquiesce in a minority Conservative administration. I happen to believe that the Conservatives were not looking at formal coalition, they simply wanted to make sure that a minority Conservative government had enough shelf life to get a few things done before seeking a full mandate.

The results of this twin strategy were solid if not spectacular the polls began to shift towards the Conservatives, the Lib Dems began to drift downwards in polling. The sideline effect was that the Labour party started to balkanise more and more into Blairite and Brownite. The Brown camp in the lead up to the transition clearly was whispering around that he was the traditionalist and that when he got his hands on the levers of power that his government would be more left-wing. It was clear though that Brown would be left with little room for manoeuvre and would end up either disappointing those who thought he was their salvation or the electorate which was showing signs of shifting in a Blairite or right-ward direction. Thus phase one of the Parliament came to a climax.

Phase two was always going to be the point between when Brown succeeded to the Premiership and the point at which the shape of future Politics became obvious. It represented the tipping point of Politics and as with any fulcrum it can tip either way. This tipping point period started in June with a significant bounce in the polls for Labour and a serious wobble on the part of the Conservatives. Indeed at times during those first three months it appeared as if the Conservatives would be faced with an early election and demolished. I think though that the Cameron strategy rested on this one big gamble, that Gordon wouldn’t throw his innate caution to the wind. It was a high stakes game of political Russian roulette, I doubt though that even David Cameron would have foreseen that Gordon Brown would seemingly put the bullet straight through his chances at the next election. This phase of the Cameron strategy was to ride out the Brown bounce and then ruthlessly prey on his own insecurities. Cameron has followed this strategy ever since Gordon arrived and has had the PM visibly quivering with rage, hands shaking. David Cameron has used PMQ’s to eviscerate the Prime Minister’s character in a merciless way. The PM has made several mistakes that have given Cameron the space to achieve this, notably when he visibly blinked in October over the election that never was. It wasn’t so much what it said about the political situation as what it said about the PM, for all the double-digit poll leads Gordon was scared of the Conservatives. Cameron used the period afterwards to compound misery on Gordon Brown and to bare his political teeth. As the undoubted Big Beast shrunk the plucky little fighter was bulking up.

The immediate space after the cancelled election also gave space to the Lib Dems who had found themselves viciously squeezed in the vice of the two-party titans. At one stage plumbing the depths of just 11% in the polls. Ming was eased out and eventually replaced with Nick Clegg, this has resulted in a slight improvement in the Lib Dem polling figures but they are still well off their 2005 tally. Also the new Lib Dem leader hasn’t had an auspicious start, firstly his election was by the thinnest of margins. Then he concocted a row over a key policy which looked unseemly. He then courted ridicule with laddish braggings in a magazine interview. The media appear to regard him with faint disdain and he hasn’t even got to his six month mark yet, and for a party that is third placed they rely on a favourable media for even a slightly fair wind.

The tipping point period seems to be coming to an end now, as the shape of politics in the last section of the Parliament the final run-in to the next election begins to become clearer. The Local elections last week were a shattering rebuff to Labour, commentators were left scouring the record books to draw comparisons. Some even suggested that this was as bad as it has been for Labour since the First World War, I think that is stretching things. The common benchmark is that this is certainly as bad as it has been since 1968. The Conservatives scored 44% of the vote and were 20% in front of Labour, confirming the most dire opinion polls. In London Labour lost the mayoralty and were probably only saved from a bigger humiliation by the personality of the incumbent Mayor seeking re-election. In London terms the Lib Dems were severely squeezed and despite net gains and good headlines the picture in the locals is probably patchy and falsely comforting for the Lib Dems. The Conservatives were the clear winners in the Local elections making progress in all parts, even in the North and in some of Labour’s heartland areas. The Conservatives also now have a two-year period of running London to showcase how a Conservative government would be and despite the hopes of many left-wing columnists, Boris Johnson will not embarass the Conservative cause but will aid it.

The final chapter in this part of the Parliament is being written now in Crewe & Nantwich. The by-election caused by the sad death of Gwynneth Dunwoody will be the most important in years. The Conservatives have a realistic chance of taking the seat, the Lib Dems are miles behind and although they are the past masters at by-elections the Conservatives have learnt lessons from recent contests and are showing serious intent. If the Conservatives win Crewe & Nantwich it will be the clearest possible indication of which way politics has tipped. If they don’t win then whilst I think that the indicators will be slightly less clear the direction will still be the same but less emphatically. The final section of this Parliament looks increasingly as if it will be about the increasing inevitablitiy of a change of government.

 

Latest Opinion Poll - Conservatives 18% ahead

So tonight sees a new opinion poll published by YouGov with the Conservatives on 44%, Labour on 26% and the Lib Dems on 17%. This is a staggering poll. If replicated in a General election it would probably produce a seriously workable majority for the Conservatives. It is also interesting to note that the Conservative lead is now larger than the Lib Dem share of the poll, the Conservative share is larger than the combination of the other two parties shares and the difference between the Conservatives and Labour is double that between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Now clearly this could be a rogue poll and bear no relation to how party support is in the country. We will need to see other polls to start to get an idea of whether the Conservatives are developing an election winning position. Also next weeks local elections may give us an idea of the state of play.

For Labour this is a catastrophic rating to be at, they are plumbing polling depths that they haven’t seen since the dog days of Michael Foot. If this poll figure is accurate Labour has some big questions to ask itself about how it is in this position, and how to dig itself out. If it fails to come up with the correct answer then it looks increasingly likely that they will be bundled out of office when the next election comes. This sort of polling begins to bring into sharp relief the rebellion in Labour ranks over the 10p tax band abolition. Some thoughts will turn to the leadership and whether to ditch Brown. Whilst I can see the arguments around it, and the superficial attraction I suspect that a governing party that replaced a leader they had chosen by acclamation only a short while before would not be treated kindly. Labour might be looking at a bad result next time, ditch Brown and it could be even worse.

The Lib Dems have staged a modest recovery from the dire position they were in under Ming. It wasn’t Mings fault, it wasn’t even his age, it was his massive dislocation from the zeitgeist. This was a leader who looked like he had walked out of the 1950’s, it was never ever going to work for the Lib Dems under Ming. The problem is that Nick Clegg has only really had one success which is to nudge the Lib Dems polling up a little, unkind souls would probably point out that a lot of that upshift occurred whilst the contest was going on. Nick Clegg probably still doesn’t resonate with the public who would be hard pressed to pull him out of a line up. The other problem is that when Clegg hasn’t been invisible he has bought negative publicity, his EU Treatystution walkout made the Lib Dems look childish, there three line whip to abstain over a referendum that was in their manifesto made them look anti-democratic and out of step with the time. Nick Cleggs laddish boast in a glossy magazine made him look frankly a bit of a prat, so in many ways the Lib Dem poll rating is despite not because of their leader. What does it presage, I think it is pretty clear that the Lib Dems are being squeezed by the Cameron Conservative Party and they need to offset losses in former Conservative seats. The Lib Dems need to make themselves a second alternative to Labour to hoover up the votes that don’t want Labour and don’t want the Conservatives either. The problem is that Nick Clegg is tending to try and face all ways, he should remember the old cliche about not fighting a war on two fronts.

All in all a very very good poll for the Conservatives, a dire poll for Labour and a middling sort of poll for the Liberal Democrats.

Conservatives making lots of headway now

Tonight there is an ICM poll giving the Conservative Party a 13 point lead over Labour. At the weekend there was a poll showing a Conservative lead of 16 points and another poll showing a 9 point lead. Earlier today there was a London mayoral poll giving Boris a 12-point lead over Ken. It is clear that despite certain concerns on the right the Conservatives are beginning to make considerable headway. Labour are now plumbing depths in polling that they last visited under Michael Foot, the Conservatives are pushing up towards the mid-40’s. The Lib Dems have improved slightly since the arrival of Ming but are still being squeezed somewhat. This is a very good position for the Conservatives to occupy at the moment. The danger is though that the election is now more than likely 2 years away and that is a long time to keep a poll lead. I would say though that as of now the likelihood of a change of government at the next election is likely. The Conservatives are now in their strongest position for two decades with the local elections approaching and the realistic chance of seizing the mayoralty of London opening up and the likelihood that there will be further gains in local government the next few weeks and months could get even better for the Conservatives.

 David Cameron must however continue to tread a fine line between caution and boldness, not allowing confidence to turn to arrogance and assumption. Victory is not assured until votes are counted. However the Conservative Party have every reason for optimism going forward, the task is still hard, the election will still be a tough one to win but the polls are now showing that there is potentially enough support out there to win an election. It is now every Conservative’s job to get out and spread the message and ensure that that support solidifies.

Nick ‘Calamity’ Clegg

Nick Clegg is proving an inspired choice for the Liberal Democrats, he has saddled his Parliamentary colleagues with a dilemma, follow his lead into opprobrium and obscurity or resile from it and show how hopelessly split the party is. The decision to follow the approach of reneging on their commitment to a referendum on the Constitution and to propose a referendum on the whole question of EU membership was already an inept one. To compound that by acting like spoilt sixth formers last week, and now to be scrabbling for any figleaf to cover up how ridiculous they look takes a certain type of inspiration. Nick Clegg is beginning to look like a contortionist hopelessly tied in more knots than he can feasibly escape from. David Cameron would be forgiven for having a broad grin over the chaos in the Liberal Democrats, indeed the letter that Clegg sent to Conservative MP’s must have provoked gales of laughter.

The path for the Liberal Democrats was clear for all to see, put pressure on the Government by sticking to the promise of a referendum on the Treaty. This would have left the government on the unpopular side of the argument, it would have cemented the Lib Dems as another repository of anti-government votes and would have boosted Nick Cleggs leadership probably with a certain uplift in polling. As it stands it looks like Clegg is running scared of Nigel Farage in the South West and it looks like the expected Lib Dem squeeze by the Conservatives could be slightly more dramatic, just weeks away from local elections this is not a good place for Nick Clegg to be in!

Conservatives 11% Ahead

New Opinion poll puts Conservatives 11 points ahead of Labour, Conservatives, are on 43, Labour on 32. This is good news for the Conservatives and bad news for Labour. I suspect that if things continue as they are now there will be at least one poll with a 15 point lead before Christmas. We shouldn’t underestimate how bad things are for Labour, and it is no use anyone pretending. Labour are in a very very big hole.

Lib Dem Runners and Riders - My Impressions

Vincent Cable - Nice guy, would probably suffer from being only 2 years younger than the Mingmeister. Especially as everyone seems to be blaming the Ming’s demise on his age. I think his other problem is similar to Ming’s as well, specialism. Ming was a foreign affairs expert, he never gave the impression of being comfortable on any other subject. Cable has a similar tendency with economics, he seems slightly less uncomfortable than Ming but not a lot.

Nick Clegg - The great white hope of the Liberal Democrats. Often compared to David Cameron, widely seen as being a danger to the same. I would say that from what I have seen he looks and sounds reasonable in an insurance salesman kind of way. I think he can be slightly bland and is not an electric speaker which I think Lib Dem’s need to be to generate publicity.

Ed Davey - Comes across as a bit of a know-it-all to me. Looks a bit smug and self-satisfied. Other than that he is pretty much an unknown quantity, can’t remember the last time I saw him on TV.

Chris Huhne - Gets rave reviews and I can not understand why at all. I lose all interest from about syllable two of whatever the man is saying. The man just screams boring at you, only he doesn’t because he is boring. Specialises in the environment and you can tell.

Charles Kennedy - The Lib Dem’s most impressive performer, witty, personable and the sort of bloke you could imagine going for a drink with. Risky to retread due to his very public problems that led him to relinquish the leadership. Maybe, it would certainly give the Lib Dems their mojo back.

Susan Kramer - She comes across as a bit strange, almost like a professional spinster even though I am sure that is unkind to her. I think she is the wrong type of woman to be thinking about it. Not very high profile either. Whatever she has been saying of late hasn’t been heard.

David Laws - I don’t know if I have ever heard or seen this guy. So I won’t comment.

Well the Lib Dem leadership contest is under way

The race to replace Ming is underway now, who will emerge at the top of the heap. The money seems to be on Clegg. Everyone is predicting that that will cause the Conservatives problems. I am not sure that that is necessarily the case, but it remains to be seen. Will it bring back the voters who have deserted the Lib Dems in recent weeks? I don’t know that it necessarily will. The Lib Dems were always going to have a harder time distilling a distinctive message or any message once the Conservatives properly joined the fight against Labour. Ming probably didn’t help, but changing Ming may not help and may in the short term cause problems. It is less than 2 years since the last leader was defenestrated, well the glaziers are being kept busy. However what happens if Clegg or whoever is installed and the Lib Dems are in not much of a better position? They can’t keep ditching leaders. They may have to accept that third parties probably only gain traction, when there is something to gain traction against.

Ming steps down!

Apparantly the Ming is to stand down as Lib Dem leader. Two leader changes in two years is not a good signal to be sending the electorate. The issue for the Lib Dems is does the gamble pay off? If it doesn’t and they are still at 11% in the opinion polls then what do they do for an encore?

Latest Opinion Poll

Well the latest opinion poll for ICM gives the Conservatives a share of 43% , Labour 36% and the Lib Dems 14%. This is clearly good news for David Cameron and the Conservative Party, it confirms that the Lib Dems are being squeezed but it is not dreadful news for Labour. I think most Labour people will probably be pretty sanguine about this kind of poll. Some Conservatives will go overboard, I won’t. You can look at the historical poll record and find opinion polls in the 80’s and 90’s giving bigger opposition poll leads than this and them still going on to defeat at the ensuing general election.

This opinion poll doesn’t show as some will say that the Conservatives are heading for government. It does show however that they are competitive for the first time in over a decade. That has got to be good news for politics in general. There is still a horrificly long way to go until the next general election, this opinion poll shows that the Conservatives can win an election not that they will win an election. Every Conservative should see the hope in this poll and seize the opportunity to work hard to turn potential victory into actual victory. I know one thing for sure, I’m up for it!

Update: It appears the TB/GB’s have kicked off again. Articles in the Mail on Sunday and Sunday Times with anonymous briefers sticking the knife in to Brown. I actually thought that the Blairites would stay shtum for longer. Oh well, I won’t try and dissuade them!!

Has anything fundamentally changed in politics?

Well Parliament came back for a new term, and who would have predicted when it rose in July how different things would look on the first day after the recess. It seems as if the landscape has been completely and permanently altered, but has it?

Since Gordon took over in June things had gone rather swimmingly for Labour, and not so well for the Conservatives. However I think we need to go back a little further than that to explain what has occurred this year. It was clear from the day after the lasts election that Tony Blair was going, the big hint was he had told us this. It was also clear that barring some catastrophe and despite the best efforts of Blairites and lefty spoilers Gordon Brown would succeed. The infamous Granita Pact would be delivered on in full, if a little behind schedule. Everyone knew this deep down. The Conservatives adopted a strategy of pre-emptively striking Brown, week in and week out as Cameron took on Blair at PMQ’s the best barbs were for Gordon. Everything was designed to highlight the weaknesses of the Gord. Blair understood this and played on it, referring to the Gord as the ‘great clunking fist’.

Opinion Polls started asking the forced choice question about Brown and they got headline results. Cameron was a number of points ahead of Blair Labour in those polls but he was considerably ahead of potential Brown Labour, election winningly so in some surveys. This fed into the psychology of both parties I believe. I think both parties underestimated and miscalculated what would happen when Brown eventually got the top job. I think this factored in heavily to what has been a political bubble over the summer and Autumn. I think both parties believed that with the advent of Brown politics would change, I think both sides believed the forced choice polls. To be brutally honest, I think I did too.

What this meant was that when Brown came in and got what should have been a predictable fillip in the polls it affected both parties based on their shared prior belief in the misleading forced choice polls. The Conservatives couldn’t believe it, their strategy had seemingly been firing blanks, people started grumbling and speaking out. I think this was motivated by a concern that two years had been spent on a false assumption. This belief in the misleading forced choice polls also affected Labour over this period. I think the relief in finding that Brown wasn’t a vote loser was palpable, Labour had a lead in the polls at last. I think then that a few cavalier Labour members saw what was happening over the other side based on the apparent misreading of the political weather and saw an opportunity. Why not capitalise on this fillip for us and disarray over there to hold an election. There would be only one inevitable result.

So the talk of an election started as whispers off stage. The Conservatives were flailing around with old hands popping up and being unhelpful. I actually think people were surprised by the Brown bounce despite their protestations to the contrary. I think that serious Labour consideration then began to be given to an election. Catch the Conservatives off guard, win an election and then all hell will break loose in the opposition and we will have a free ride for ages. So people began to plan, pollsters started working, activists put on notice, advertising companies hired and certain people began to brief the media about a ‘possible snap election’. This was a catastrophic mistake, it gave the Conservatives notice of the intention. Not so much a right hook by a clunking fist as a slap to a hysteric. It bought the Conservatives up sharp. I think then that minds were concentrated on a scratch strategy, either head off an election or at least get something to fight on.

I think the events of the last couple of weeks have been done to death so I won’t go into them. Why did it work though? Why did the Tories audacious conference strategy work? There was no guarantee that it would head off the election. I think it worked because the underlying initial assumptions were broadly correct, I think Brown is not a vote winner for Labour in the way that Blair was. I think the forced choice questions got it somewhat right but that both parties didn’t realise that it was forecasting the longer term position not the immediate scenario. When Brown got a bounce and favourable events it led to panic for the Conservatives and arrogance and hubris for Labour. I think the bounce for Brown was a novelty bounce, not a substantial bounce and that over the winter and into the spring as he has to be PM under normal circumstances the underlying Conservative strategy will be vindicated. I think most people do not like or warm to Brown instinctively. He is competent but not charismatic, insipid rather than inspirational. That will assert itself over time as the crises of his first month fade from memory.

The arrogance and hubris of Labour in stoking an election on the back of a bounce, and then having to extricate themselves publicly in double-quick time will do lasting damage. Brown already had issues in winning over the middle-England marginals that are crucial for Labour. Now he has had to do this volte-face and in the light of his explanation of it and the cynical exploitation of British serviceman to try to leverage their enduring popularity for party political advantage has given the Conservatives message that Brown is a cynical and calculating tribal politician traction it may not otherwise have enjoyed. He has appeared weak and indecisive, he has shown that he either has no control over his team or was playing party games whilst pretending he was running the country. Labour will spin that this only interests the Westminster Village, but that is more in hope than realistic expectation.

Psychologically Labour are now humbled and wary, this is a fantastic opportunity for the Conservatives. Over the weekend we have all had fun, pointing and laughing at Labour. It would be advisable if this ceased rapidly, otherwise we will begin to look vindictive rather than merely vindicated. The Conservatives need to treat the next period rather like a football match between the Premiership champions and the newly promoted side who have just scored a fluky goal. Labour have lost shape at the back, it would be advisable to press and not allow them to regroup. Labour on the other hand need to work themselves back into the game. The opinion polls have been volatile for months, I think that is because the voting public have genuinely not made up their minds decisively as to whether ‘more of the same’ or ‘time for a change’ is a more compelling message.

I think the events of the last few weeks have evened up the chances at the next election. The Conservatives I think until this week had been seen as more effective than at any point since 1997, I don’t think though that they were seen as genuine contenders. I think that has now changed. Labour though were seen as having a heavy advantage and I think that has been blown now. In psychological terms though Labour have suffered a lot of damage, the last few weeks have shown that the Conservatives no longer behave as beaten but waiting for the scoreline. They have also shown that they think that Labour are beatable. The danger for the Labour party is that by publicly running away from a fight they have shown that they think they are beatable too, and that is a toxic message to have in the public domain.